NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory

The latest news and information about NOAA research in and around the Great Lakes


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Lake Erie Hypoxia Forecasting Project Kicks Off With Stakeholder Workshop

A collaborative research team, led by Drs. Craig Stow of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (NOAA GLERL) and Mark Rowe of the University of Michigan’s Cooperative Institute for Limnology and Ecosystems Research (CILER),  will be holding a workshop with key stakeholders for guidance on how a forecast model could help meet the needs for information on low oxygen conditions—or hypoxia—in Lake Erie. The workshop, coming up later this spring, kicks off a 5-year project that brings together inter-agency and university scientists to produce a forecasting system that will predict the location and movement of hypoxic water in Lake Erie. The project will link a hypoxia model to NOAA’s Lake Erie Operational Forecasting System (LEOFS) hydrodynamic model, which provides daily nowcast and 5-10 day forecasts of temperature and currents in Lake Erie.

HypoxiaDiagram

Hypoxia occurs in the central basin of Lake Erie in July through September of most years. Low-oxygen water is an unfavorable habitat for fish, and may kill benthic organisms that provide food for fish. It is less well known, however, that hypoxic water can also upset drinking water treatment processes. Upwelling or seiche events can bring hypoxic water to water intakes along the shoreline, causing rapid changes in dissolved oxygen and associated water quality variables such as temperature, pH, dissolved organic matter, iron, and manganese. To maintain the quality of treated water, plant managers must adjust treatment in response to these changes. Hypoxia forecasts will provide several days advance notice of changing source water quality so that drinking water plant managers can be prepared to adjust treatment processes as needed.

While the hypoxia forecasting project will help to minimize the negative impacts of hypoxia, a parallel effort is occurring to address the root cause of this problem involving nutrient loading. Universities, state, federal, and Canadian agencies are collaborating to satisfy the goals of the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement by reducing nutrient loads to Lake Erie, a primary stressor driving hypoxic conditions.

The upcoming stakeholder workshop on hypoxia will bring the research team together with stakeholders consisting of municipal drinking water plant managers from U.S. and Canadian facilities on Lake Erie, as well as representatives of state and local agencies. The group will learn about hypoxia and its effects, hear about the goals of the LEOFS-Hypoxia project, and provide input to the research team on their information needs. As the first in a series of meetings of the project’s Management Transition Advisory Group, this workshop will help identify the most useful data types and delivery mechanisms, laying the groundwork for the research team to design a forecasting tool that specifically addresses the needs of public water systems on Lake Erie.

The workshop will be held at Cleveland Water in Cleveland, Ohio. Representatives from Ohio Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Ohio Department of Natural Resources, Ohio Sea Grant, townships and other local governments were also invited to attend.  

The LEOFS-Hypoxia project is a collaboration with the City of Cleveland Division of Water, Purdue University, and U. S. Geological Survey, with guidance from a management advisory group including representatives from Ohio public water systems, Ohio EPA, Great Lakes Observing System (GLOS), and NOAA. The work is supported by a $1.4 million award from the NOAA National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS) Center for Sponsored Coastal Ocean Research by a grant to NOAA GLERL and University of Michigan (award NA16NOS4780209).

Getting to the root cause of the problem
As part of an initiative conducted under the auspices of the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement, Annex 4, the following forums, led by Dr. Craig Stow at GLERL, will focus on the linkage of nutrient loading to water quality degradation problems, such as hypoxia and harmful algal blooms.

  • 4/5-6: Nutrient Load Workshop
  • 5/9-10: Annex 4 (nutrients) Subcommittee Meeting

Scientists attending these workshops will apply long term research results to estimate nutrient inputs to Great Lakes waters and evaluate how well we are doing in reaching phosphorus load reduction targets established under Annex 4 of the GLWQA.

Additional Resources
NOAA GLERL Hypoxia web page: https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/HABs_and_Hypoxia/hypoxiaWarningSystem.html

Download the NOAA GLERL hypoxia infographic, here:

NOAA booth at annual American Meteorological Society meeting.


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GLERL researchers heading to AMS 2017

The American Meteorological Society’s Annual Meeting (AMS 2017) is upon us and researchers from GLERL and CILER (the Cooperative Institute for Limnology and Ecosystems Research), along with other partners, are hitting the grounds running on Monday with posters and presentations on climate, ice, HABs, modeling, forecasting, transitioning research to ops, and more!

Here’s a schedule of where you’ll find us throughout the week. (GLERL and CILER researchers highlighted in italics. Poster titles linked to .pdf of poster, if available.) And, don’t forget to swing by the NOAA booth (#405) to check out all of the fantastic work that NOAA scientists are doing around the world!


GLERL and CILER posters and presentations during AMS 2017

Monday, 23 January 2017

The Great Lakes Adaptation Data Suite: Providing a Coherent Collection of Climate Data for the Great Lakes Region
Type: Poster
Location: 4E (Washington State Convention Center), Poster #1
Authors: Omar C. Gates, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and K. Channell, D. Brown, W. Baule, D. J. Schwab, C. Riseng, and A. Gronewold

Abstract: Climate change impacts are a growing concern for researchers and adaptation professionals throughout society. These individuals look to different data sources in order to contemplate the challenges that are present from climate impacts. The use of observational data helps to understand which climatic factors exploit vulnerabilities and to develop solutions to make systems more resilient. However, non-uniform data collection and processing often hinders the progress towards such a goal because many publicly-accessible data sets are not readily usable to address the concern of climate impacts on societies. In the Great Lakes region, there is the added challenge of data quality and coverage issues for over-lake versus over-land observations. The creation of the Great Lakes Adaptation Data Suite (GLADS) aims to resolve these dilemmas by providing processed over-land and over-lake observations within one suite for the Great Lakes region of North America, and this data suite is provided to individuals with a vested interest in decision-making for climate resilience. This intent serves as a way for the GLADS to engage with individuals, from various backgrounds, that are interested in incorporating climate information into their work. Feedback from this audience will be analyzed to further improve the GLADS for use in decision-making. Further analysis will look at the connections among potential users and how they perceive the GLADS as being a useful tool for their research. By gaining perspective into the individuals’ expectations of the tool and their understanding of climate information, the GLADS will be able to accommodate the necessary steps for integrating climate information into decision-making processes to mitigate climate impacts.

Tuesday, 24 January 2017

Coupling Effects Between Unstructured WAVEWATCH III and FVCOM in Shallow Water Regions of the Great Lakes
Type: Presentation
Time: 9:15 AM
Locations: Conference Center: Chelan 4 (Washington State Convention Center )
Authors: Jian Kuang, IMSG@NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD; and A. J. Van der Westhuysen, E. J. Anderson, G. Mann, A. Fujisaki, and J. G. W. Kelley

Abstract: The modeling of waves in shallow environments is challenging because of irregular coastlines and bathymetry, as well as complicated meteorological forcing. In this paper, we aim to provide insight into the physics of storm surge-wave interaction within shallow water regions of the Great Lakes under strong wind events. Extensive hindcast analysis using the 3D-circulation model FVCOM v3.2.2 and the third generation spectral wave model WAVEWATCH III v4.18 was conducted on unstructured meshes for each of the Great Lakes. The circulation and wave models are coupled through a file-transfer method and tested with various coupling intervals. We conducted tests for five short-term (storm length) test cases and three long-term (seasonal) test cases. Time series, spatial plots and statistics are provided. Data exchange of radiation stress, water elevation and ocean currents were tested in both two-way and one-way coupling regimes in order to assess the influence of each variable. Three types of wave current parametrizations will be discussed (surface layer, depth-averaged, and hybrid). The meteorological input forcing fields are 1km/4km/12km WRF model results with time interval of 1h for 4km/12km resolution and 10min for 1km resolution. Statistical analysis was performed in order to evaluate the model sensitivity on the unstructured domain in terms of wind, physics packages and surge-wave coupling effects. These efforts are towards an assessment of the model configuration with a view toward future operational implementation.

Linking Hydrologic and Coastal Hydrodynamic Models in the Great Lakes
Type: Presentation
Time: 2:00pm
Location: Conference Center – Chelan 4 (Washington State Convention Center)
Authors: Eric J. Anderson, NOAA/ERL/GLERL, Ann Arbor, MI; and A. Gronewold, L. Pei, C. Xiao, L. E. Fitzpatrick, B. M. Lofgren, P. Y. Chu, T. Hunter, D. J. Gochis, K. Sampson, and A. Dugger

Abstract: As the next-generation hydrologic and hydrodynamic forecast models are developed, a strong emphasis is placed on model coupling and the expansion to ecological forecasting in coastal regions. The next-generation NOAA Great Lakes Operational Forecast System (GLOFS) is being developed using the Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM) to provide forecast guidance for traditional requirements such as navigation, search and rescue, and spill response, as well as to provide a physical backbone for ecological forecasts of harmful algal blooms, hypoxia, and pathogens. However, to date operational coastal hydrodynamic models have minimal or no linkage to hydrologic inflows and forecast information. As the new National Water Model (NWM) is developed using the Weather Research and Forecasting Hydrologic model (WRF-Hydro) to produce forecast stream flows at nearly 2.7 million locations, important questions arise about model coupling between the NWM and coastal models (e.g. FVCOM), how this linkage will impact forecast guidance in systems such as GLOFS, and how WRF-Hydro stream flows compare to existing products. In this study, we investigate hindcasted WRF-Hydro stream flows for the Great Lakes as compared to existing legacy research models. These hydrological stream flows are then linked with the next-generation FVCOM models, where the impacts to hydrodynamic forecast guidance can be evaluated. This study is a first step in coupling the next-generation NWM with NOAA’s operational coastal hydrodynamic models.

Regional Hydrological Response from Statistically Downscaled Future Climate Projections in the 21st Century
Type: Poster
Location: 4E (Washington State Convention Center), Poster #462
Authors: Lisi Pei, NOAA, Ann Arbor, MI; and A. Gronewold, T. Hunter, and R. Bolinger

Abstract: Understanding how future climate change signals propagate into hydrological response is critical for water supply forecasting and water resources management. To demonstrate how this understanding can be improved at regional scales, we studied the hydrological response of the Laurentian Great Lakes under future climate change scenarios in the 21st century using a conventional regional hydrological modeling system (the Great Lakes Advanced Hydrologic Prediction System, or GL-AHPS) forced by statistically downscaled CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) future projections. The Great Lakes serve as a unique case study because they constitute the largest bodies of fresh surface water on Earth, and because their basin is bisected by the international border between the United States and Canada, a feature that complicates water level and runoff modeling and forecasting. The GL-AHPS framework is specifically designed to address these unique challenges. Existing model validation results indicate that the GL-AHPS model framework provides reasonable simulation of historical seasonal water supplies, but has significant deficiencies on longer time scales. A major component of this study, therefore, includes reformulating key algorithms within the GL-AHPS system (including those governing evapotranspiration), and assessing the benefits of those improvements.

Reconstructing Evaporation over Lake Erie during the Historic November 2014 Lake Effect Snow Event
Type: Poster
Location: 4E (Washington State Convention Center), Poster #898
Authors: Lindsay E. Fitzpatrick, CILER, Ann Arbor, MI; and A. Manome, A. Gronewold, E. J. Anderson, C. Spence, J. Chen, C. Shao, D. M. Wright, B. M. Lofgren, C. Xiao, D. J. Posselt, and D. J. Schwab

Abstract: The extreme North American winter storm of November 2014 triggered a record lake effect snowfall event in southwest New York, which resulted in 14 fatalities, stranded motorists, and caused power outages. While the large-scale atmospheric conditions of the descending polar vortex are believed to be responsible for the significant lake effect snowfall over the region, to-date there has not yet been an assessment of how state-of-the-art numerical models performed in simulating evaporation from Lake Erie, which is tied to the accuracy in forecasting lake effect snow.

This study examined the evaporation from Lake Erie during the record lake effect snowfall event, November 17th-20th, 2014, by reconstructing heat fluxes and evaporation rates over Lake Erie using the unstructured grid, Finite-Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM). Nine different model runs were conducted using combinations of three different flux algorithms: the Met Flux Algorithm (COARE), a method routinely used at NOAA’s Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (SOLAR), and the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model (CICE); and three different meteorological forcings: the Climate Forecast System version 2 Operational Analysis (CFSv2), Interpolated observations (Interp), and the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR). A few non-FVCOM model outputs were also included in the evaporation analysis from an atmospheric reanalysis (CFSv2) and the large lake thermodynamic model (LLTM). Model-simulated water temperature and meteorological forcing data (wind direction and air temperature) were validated with buoy data at three locations in Lake Erie. The simulated sensible and latent heat fluxes were validated with the eddy covariance measurements at two offshore sites; Long Point Lighthouse in north central Lake Erie and Toledo water crib intake in western Lake Erie. The evaluation showed a significant increase in heat fluxes over three days, with the peak on the 18th of November. Snow water equivalent data from the National Snow Analyses at the National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center showed a spike in water content on the 20th of November, two days after the peak heat fluxes. The ensemble runs presented a variation in spatial pattern of evaporation, lake-wide average evaporation, and resulting cooling of the lake. Overall, the evaporation tended to be larger in deep water than shallow water near the shore. The lake-wide average evaporations from CFSv2 and LLTM are significantly smaller than those from FVCOM. The variation among the nine FVCOM runs resulted in the 3D mean water temperature cooling in a range from 3 degrees C to 5 degrees C (6-10 EJ loss in heat content), implication for impacts on preconditioning for the upcoming ice season.

Projecting Water Levels of the Laurentian Great Lakes in the 21st Century from a Dynamical Downscaling Perspective
Type: Presentation
Time: 11:15 AM
Locations: 602 (Washington State Convention Center)
Authors: Chuliang Xiao, University of Michigan, CILER, Ann Arbor, MI; and B. M. Lofgren, J. Wang, P. Y. Chu, and A. Gronewold

Abstract: As the largest group of fresh surface water bodies on earth, the Laurentian Great Lakes have a significant influence on regional climate. Due to the limited spatial resolution of general circulation models (GCMs), the Great Lakes are generally ignored in GCMs. Thus, the technique of dynamical downscaling serves as a practical and important, but challenging solution to the problem of understanding climate impacts and hydrological response in this unique region. Here, we employed the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) with an updated lake scheme to downscale from a GCM with two future greenhouse gas concentration scenarios in the 21st century. Historical validation shows that the WRF-Lake model, with a fine horizontal resolution and a 1-dimensional lake representation, improves the hydroclimatology simulation in terms of seasonal cycles of lake surface temperature, precipitation, and ice coverage. Based on the downscaling results, a hydrologic routing model is performed to project the Great Lakes’ water level changes in 21st century using net basin supply (NBS, calculated as the sum of over-lake precipitation, basin-wide runoff, and lake evaporation) as an input. As the lakes warm and lake ice diminishes, water levels are projected to have persistent and enhanced interannual variations in the presumed climate change. These changes have a range of potential socioeconomic impacts in the Great Lakes region, including changes in hydropower capacity, the length of the commercial shipping season, and the design life of coastal residences and infrastructure.

Wednesday, 25 January 2017

Simulating and Forecasting Seasonal Ice Cover
Type: Poster, #1147
Authors: Xiaolong Ji, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and H. Daher, R. Bolinger, A. Gronewold, and R. B. Rood

Abstract: Over the past several decades, dramatic changes in the spatial extent of seasonal and long-term ice cover have been documented for both marine and continential (inland) water bodies. Successfully projecting (and planning for) future changes in global ice cover requires an understanding of the drivers behing these historical changes. Here, we explore relationships between continental climate patterns and regional ice cover across the vast surface waters of the Laurentian Great Lakes. The Great Lakes constitute the largest collective surface of freshwater on Earth, and seasonal variability in ice cover is closely linked with lake heat content, energy fluxes, and water levels (all of which have strong linkages with ecological and socioeconomic stability in the region). Our findings indicate that abrupt historical changes in Great Lakes seasonal ice cover are coincident with historical changes in teleconnections, including both the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). We find, in particular, that these teleconnections explain much of the ice cover decline in the late 1990s (coincident with the strong 1997-1998 winter El Nino) and the following persistent period of below-average period of ice that followed. We encode these relationships in a probabilistic model that provides seasonal projections of ice cover areal extent across the Great Lakes, as well as specific spatiotemporal patterns in ice cover at resolutions that align with critical regional human health and safety-related management decisions.

What Does It Take to Transition Six Forecasting Systems into Operations in Ten Years? — Lessons Learned, Myths and Facts
Type: Presentation
Time: 11:15 AM
Location: 608 (Washington State Convention Center)
Authors: Philip Y. Chu, GLERL, Ann Arbor, MI; and E. J. Anderson, G. Lang, J. G. W. Kelley, E. Myers, A. Zhang, J. Xu, and Y. Chen

Abstract: NOAA Great Lakes Operational Forecasting System (GLOFS), developed by the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory and National Ocean Service, has been operational since 2005. A project to upgrade GLOFS, using FVCOM as the core 3-D oceanographic forecast model, has been conducted during the past 3 years involving GLERL, NOS/CSDL and CO-OPS and NCEP Central Operations. The 1st phase of this project has been completed with the operational implementation of a new GLOFS version for Lake Erie on NOAA’s Weather and Climate Operational Supercomputer System in May 2016.

Many lessons were learned from transitioning six forecasting systems to operations in 10 years. On the technical aspects which include hardware, software, systems — we found that keys to successful transition are on 1) methods to harden the software infrastructure to make a robust, automated system; 2) backup and alternative procedures for handling missing or corrupted input data; 3) standardized validation and skill assessment metrics; 4) preparation of complete documentation including validation test reports, standard operating procedures (SOP), and software user guides; 5) adequate near-real-time observations of discharge, and water levels to provide LBCs for the system and 6) field projects in the Great Lakes (i.e. IFYGL) to provide surface and subsurface data for the evaluation of the forecast models during development and testing. In particular, program source codes need to be frozen during the testing, validation and the transition period with proper version control.

In addition to the technical aspects, a successful system transition from the research/development stage into operations also involves non-technical aspects, such as commitment from senior leadership, frequent communications among all involved parties on progress and milestones, training sessions for the system operators and user engagement workshops for the end users.

Applying WRF-Hydro in the Great Lakes Basin: Offline Simulations in the Seasonal Hydrological Responses
Type: Presentation
Time: 4:45 PM
Location: Conference Center – Chelan 2 (Washington State Convention Center )
Authors: Lisi Pei, NOAA, Ann Arbor, MI; and A. Gronewold, D. J. Gochis, K. Sampson, A. Dugger, C. Xiao, L. Mason, B. M. Lofgren, and P. Y. Chu

Abstract: As a unified atmosphere-land hydrological modeling system, the WRF-Hydro (Weather Research and Forecasting model Hydrological modeling extension package) framework is being employed by the NOAA-National Water Center (NWC, Tuscaloosa, AL) to provide streamflow forecasting over the entire CONUS in 250 m resolution from hourly to monthly scale. Currently, efforts are focused on tests and an operational forecast launch on August 16th, 2016. But due to inconsistencies in the land surface hydrographic datasets between U.S. and Canada over the Great Lakes Basin, many of the tributaries feeding the Great Lakes and the major channels connecting the Great Lakes (including the Niagara, St. Clair, and Detroit Rivers) are missing or poorly represented in the current NWC streamflow forecasting domain. Improvements in the model’s current representation of lake physics and stream routing are also critical for WRF-Hydro to adequately simulate the Great Lakes water budget and Great Lakes coastal water levels. To customize WRF-Hydro to the Laurentian Great Lakes Basin using protocols consistent with those used for the current CONUS operational domain, the NOAA-Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory has partnered with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and other agencies to develop land surface hydrographic datasets and compatible stream routing grids that connect to the current CONUS operational domain. This research group is also conducting 1-km resolution offline tests with WRF-Hydro based on current best available bi-national land surface geographic datasets to examine the model’s ability to simulate seasonal hydrological response over the Great Lakes (runoff and land-atmosphere fluxes) with its coupled overland flow terrain-routing module, subsurface lateral flow module and channel flow (runoff) module.

Thursday, 26 January 2017

Using the Next-Generation Great Lakes Operational Forecasting System (GLOFS) to Predict Harmful Algal Bloom (HAB) Transport with the HAB Tracker
Type: Presentation
Time: 3:30 PM
Location: 611 (Washington State Convention Center)
Authors: Eric J. Anderson, NOAA/ERL/GLERL, Ann Arbor, MI; and M. Rowe, J. Xu, A. Zhang, G. Lang, J. G. W. Kelley, and R. Stumpf

Abstract: Harmful algal blooms (HAB) plague coastal environments around the world, and particularly in the United States in areas such as the Great Lakes, Florida, Washington, and Maine. In the Great Lakes, shallow embayments such as the western basin of Lake Erie have experienced a period of increasing HAB intensity in recent years, including an event in 2014 where high toxicity levels resulted in a drinking water restriction to nearly 400,000 residents. In order to help decision makers and the public respond to these events, an experimental model has been developed short-term forecasts of HAB concentration and transport. The HAB Tracker uses the next-generation NOAA Lake Erie Operational Forecast System (LEOFS), which is based on the Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM). The new FVCOM-based LEOFS model produces hydrodynamic forecast guidance out to 5 days using meteorology from the 3-km HRRR and 2.5 km NDFD. An experimental version of this model also extends the forecast horizon out to 10 days using forecasted meteorology from the GFS. Hourly hydrodynamic conditions (currents, diffusivity, water temperature) are supplied to a three-dimensional Lagrangian particle trajectory model that has been developed to predict HAB transport and vertical migration through the water column. Initial conditions are provided by satellite remote sensing of surface chlorophyll concentration, when available, in which previous nowcasts are used to fill gaps in satellite-derived HAB extent and extend surface concentrations into the water column to produce a three-dimensional field of HAB concentration. In-situ observations of microcystis concentration provide a calibration of particle buoyancy (i.e. colony migration) and a basis for model validation. Results show the three-dimensional HAB Tracker has improved forecast skill out to 10 days over two-dimensional surface concentration forecast products and is better than a persistence forecast out to 5 days.